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good morning, john. it's easy for usamericans to get caught in our bubble. especially when things are as weird asthey are right now. but the rest of the world continues to go on, and in brazil,that means the government kinda totally falling apart in a way that makes houseof cards look frankly boring.when i asked about it on twitter, brazilians mostlysent me gifs to explain how they felt. i also got a message from a diplomat,in brazil who told me that brazilians have a saying: brazil is not for beginners. but maybe by the end of this video you will no longer be a beginner, so let's gothere. brazil is a big country: 200 million people, as big as the uk, france, andgermany combined. it's also big enough to

fit all those countries inside of itthree times at least. it's extremely ethnically and economically diverse witha wide gap between the richest and the poorest. that economic gap also falls roughlyon racial lines, and also on political lines with wealthy white people mostlyin big cities being mostly conservative, and poor people of native or africandescent being more liberal. brazil has a diverse economy. they're the ninth largestproducer of oil, the second largest producer of beef, the third largestproducer of iron ore, and and they have the world's seventh-largest economy. from1964 to 1985 they were ruled by a military dictatorship, and in a stunningturn of events that military

dictatorship had a lot of bribery andcorruption in it. but in an actual not sarcastic stunning turn of events brazil managedto transfer from that military dictatorship to democracy withrelative ease and like sort of slowly and without very much violence. so it's worth remember throughout this entire process that though brazil seems very matureeconomically and politically, its government is only thirty years old. it's new, andthey haven't been doing it for very long. it's pretty remarkable. there was plenty of economicand political battles in the nineteen eighties and nineties but thanks to alot of hard work, and china's insatiable appetite for iron ore and hamburgers,brazil managed to get its economy on

track and it's become one of the greatsuccess stories of the developing world. until the last couple of years... soremember how bribery and corruption were really rampant in the old militarydictatorship? well that's a difficult thing to take out of the culture of bothcompanies and the government, and it has not been removed in brazil. but over thelast thirty years brazil has become more democratically mature and, somewhatunusually for latin america, has a really strong independent judiciary and areally strong independent police force. so the rock of brazil's culture ofbribery and corruption has come up against the hard place ofits strong independent judiciary,

and something had to break, and it has.but before we get there let's talk about lula. inacio lula da silva was, in the eighties,a revolutionary socialists who mostly worked against the military dictatorshipas a union organizer. after the dictatorship transitioned to democracy, ina very weird cool long story that i don't have time to tell you, lula emerged as a strong political figure andthe head of the newly formed workers party. and the workers party wasn't ableto gain much national traction until lula became what some brazilians calledlula lite; still lula, still for the people, still from the poorest part ofthe country, still representative of that

soul of brazil, but also willing to workinside of the system, also willing to help out big corporations who are a bigpart of brazil's economy and how brazil works. after running in losing three times,lula was elected in 2003 and remained president until 2011 during which timehe presided over some truly remarkable achievements, including an extremelysuccessful social program that basically paid poor families to send theirchildren to school, a program that's credited with helping lift tens ofmillions of brazilians out of poverty. lula left office with an unprecedentedeighty percent approval rating. his chief of staff, an economist who was once aguerilla fighter against the military

dictatorship and was captured by them andtortured, amazing life this woman has had and continues to have, was elected prettymuch as his successor because he couldn't run for a third term.now, lula was almost never blame free. in 2005, his government was involved in ascandal which saw members of congress being paid $12,000 a month to vote theway that lula wanted them to vote, but lula was never directly implicated inthe scandal, though several members of his government resigned. in brazil it has becomeso common for huge scandals to fizzle out without anybody getting in troublethat they have a phrase for it. they call it ending in pizza. and i'm not saying someportuguese word that sounds like pizza.

i'm saying pizza. well the days of thingsending in pizza appear to be over, for a bunch of different reasons. first becauseof the massive scale of the scandal and yes we're finally gonna get there. petrobras isbrazil's only oil company. it's majority owned by the government, and entirelycontrolled by the government. it's brazil's largest company, one of the world'slargest companies, it's responsible for ten percent of brazil's gdp and a lot ofits government's revenue. and it spends, as you might expect, a lot of moneyon construction contracts. and it's maybe always kind of been the case that highup petrobras employees and the government officials who appointed them,because remember petrobras is controlled by the

brazilian government, would give contracts toconstruction companies that overcharged the government massively, and the ceo ofthe construction company would pocket some of the difference and some of thedifference would come back to the politicians and the employees who ya know, helpedget them that contract. it's a very common corruption thing. we have it herein the usa we call it graft. it's basically just a company bribing apolitician for a lucrative contract. and as petrobras grew under lula, thanksmostly to the price of oil getting really high, the amount getting kickedback grew as well to truly massive massive proportions. it's the largestcorruption scandal in the history of any

democracy on earth, billions of dollars.one guy has offered, because you know he's scared, to give all of the moneythat he took in bribes back to the brazilian government. that amount ofmoney is a hundred million dollars. one guy! many people are going to jail. this is not ending in pizza. around ahundred of brazil's current members of congress, almost a fifth of the entirebody of congress, is under investigation right now. no political party is blame free, butthe workers party, which was in charge at the time and also supposed to the partyagainst this kind of corruption, is

catching most of the flat. but it's more thanjust the scale; it's also just awful timing. people are poised to dislike thegovernment right now because brazil is in the middle of a giant recession. thescandal has resulted in lots of loss to jobs, the zika virus epidemic is hurtingtourism, chinese retraction is terrible for brazil, massive trickle-down loans to largecorporations didn't spur economic growth, and if you've been to a gas stationrecently you know that oil is not the profit center it once was. all is difficult forpoliticians and citizens. brazil has had to implement austerity measures to getits budget in line with its revenue, but it's more than just the scale, and theawful timing, brazil also really mostly

doesn't like the current president. theyjust don't like her. two-thirds of the country, according to a recent poll, wanther to be impeached. but it's more than just the scale, and the economy, and thepresident that nobody likes, it's also judge moro, a guy who's taking lessonsfrom the nineties campaign in italy to take down the mafia, a guy who's willing tomake deals with criminals if it means uncovering more of the scandal, a guy whodoesn't mind bending the rules of it means getting support from the public,and the guy who doesn't seem to mind being deified and exalted by a lot ofthe brazilian public searching for some non political person to put their faithin. brazilians have taken a lot of the

love that they lost for lula and put itinto judge moro. he says he has no interest in politics but he doesn'treally seem to be acting that way, and if rousseff is impeached, and there are twocurrent hearings trying to impeach her, a lot of people would like judge moro torun. but it's more than just the scale, and the economy, and the president, or thecharismatic judge who takes no prisoners, are rather takes lots of prisoners, it'salso the deep kinda ugly partisan divide in brazil. no one knows how involvedrousseff and lula were in the petrobras scandal or if they were involved at all,but it doesn't seem like anybody's waiting for due process to make their judgments.in a story that might feel pretty

familiar to people in america, socialmedia has hyperpolarized brazil. people in brazil spent a lot of time on socialmedia, and their filter bubbles are just as strong as ours. people tend to hear andthus think just the worst things about their opposition, and everyone's cynicismabout everyone else, which i admit is kind of justified, results in a lack ofskepticism about negative stories of the opposition. and i'm not saying this is aunique problem to brazil. but like when judge moro released a recorded telephoneconversation in which rousseff appeared to be telling lula how she would protect himfrom prosecution, a lot of people thought how could anyone still be supportingthese people they are so obviously

corrupt, but a lot of other peoplethought why is it judge taking this seemingly political action in makingthis recording public a mere three hours after it was recorded without due process? lula and rousseff say it is just a hundred percent partisan attacks trying to take themdown and have the opposition parties gain political power. the oposition says that it's ahundred percent just them trying to get to the bottom of the scandal. even acursory inspection though shows that it is definitely both of those things. inresponse to her plummeting approval ratings and multiple impeachment hearingsand also possibly to protect him from prosecution, rousseff has brought lula on asher chief of staff. and if that seems fishy,

it's because it is. but also the moreconservative parties, some of them fed by classism and racism, are definitely usingthis as a political opportunity to gain power. meanwhile, on the left a lot of people aresaying the workers party is way too centrist, and obviously corrupt, and are runningaway from them toward the left and that's just creating a deeper partisandivide inside the country. but every major party is involved. five of the people on rousseff's impeachment committee are under investigation themselves! many ofthe most respected leaders in the country are not gonna make it out ofthis unescathed, which means it's going to

be hard for brazil to lead its way outof this problem. but it isn't just the bribery that's the problem. paulo maluf, who literally can'tleave brazil because he's wanted by interpol, ran for re-election and wonwith a campaign slogan: i steal, but i deliver. lula on the other hand has had hisown quote from 1988 thrown back at him on every social media platform on theinternet: "in brazil, when a poor man steals he goes to jail. when a rich man steals,he becomes a minister." many brazilians now see this as lula predicting his ownfuture. now this is all bad in the near term for brazil, but i think it's goodfor brazil in the long term because it

shows that being a crooked politician isnot worth it. as for what happens tomorrow and the next daynobody knows. it's a bad situation, and brazilians on the whole are very cynicalabout the government, but they're also very pragmatic. while passions cancertainly run high in individuals, there's an overall culture of peacefulevolution rather than violent revolution, and very few people seem at allinterested in giving that up which is great news. john, i'll see you on tuesday. thank you to diplomat rafael prince, andjournalist and author alex cuadros for

all of your help. alex's book brazllionaires will be out in july. and thank you as was well to all of the members of thebrazilian nerdfighter facebook group thanks for helping me out and keeping me straight.